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That “like” should’ve been an “or”. Also I’m sympathetic to cases like this where you’re dealing with a weird one-off catastrophe. Causality is a pain, even in controlled lab settings.
Causality is definitely a pain to prove (esp in this case), but so important. The authors say "cause of death is confirmed as hemorrhagic septicemia caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida", but I really don't see that. We even know this is a common bacteria in Saigas.
I think we do know that its widespread in saigas (though that's not in this paper, to be fair - there's another one coming with more detail), and we have confirmed it as COD as best we can - what other confirmation would convince you? The tricky bit is why.
You show disease A and bug B, and then hypothesize that B > A, but only when C (climate) is a factor. Problem is that there's no plausible mechanism for how B|C > A, and no experimental link either. So while it's an interesting hypothesis, this is not a proof.
Man. It would be so cool if it was pasteurella. It certainly fits the symptoms, though this kind of die off is more consistent with avian strains and fowl cholera. Massive blood contamination with bugs and fast time to death.
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