Is there evidence that COVID-19 has slowed in Europe due to herd immunity? No. The most likely explanation remains the simplest. Movement restrictions have slowed the virus, but as they are lifted, many remain at risk. A thread on the evidence. 1/6https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31357-X/fulltext …
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Reason #1: The cumulative per-capita mortality rates from COVID-19 have plateaued at different levels. If the plateau was due to herd immunity, we would expect these to be roughly similar, with modest (not huge) variation due to age profile, health, local R0. 2/6pic.twitter.com/20ZCfnfFx9
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Reason #2: Countries that went into lockdown earlier ended up with fewer deaths. This is what we would expect to see if lockdowns are causing the plateau. We know that lockdowns are most effective when pre-lockdown transmission is low, and this is what we see. 3/6pic.twitter.com/rywzZUc0sx
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Reason #3: There is a roughly linear relationship between per-capita deaths and seroprevalence. The slope is the IFR, with most evidence in the range 0.5-1%, not <0.1%. Thus, there is no evidence of a large amount of undetected spread. 4/6pic.twitter.com/DLBBjhD3Fa
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Furthermore, if these areas had all plateaued because of herd immunity due to some "immunological dark matter," why would seroprevalence settle at different values? Countries within Europe are presumably pretty similar in terms of their exposure to other viruses. 5/6
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Thus, the observed data are not consistent with a herd immunity theory, though they make a ton of sense with effective lockdowns. Kudos to the authors for putting this together. 6/END
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Als antwoord op @nataliexdean
Thanks Natalie! One quick additional comment on immunological 'dark matter' (also goes for 'genetic resistance'). If we indeed had a lot of 'dark matter', we wouldn't expect super spreading events to have such high attack rates (~80-90%).
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @nataliexdean
To me, the fact that the attack rates are so high during these events is really the best evidence to show that almost all of us are susceptible - sure, there might be some 'dark matter', but if it exists, it's very low.
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @nataliexdean
I completely agree. Are there any papers or has anyone compiled info on these super-spreading event? I think a formal analysis across geographies and age-groups would be very informative.
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Totally agree, but I haven't come across any yet - hopefully we might see some in the near future. Would be very helpful.
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This is a useful paper and commentary, thanks
@nataliexdean. According to this blog https://medium.com/@karlfriston/immunological-dark-matter-b48e20bba9ea … "Immunological dark matter" was intended as a rather more general placeholder for unexplained causes of data, possibly but not necessarily biological.1 antwoord 0 retweets 1 vind-ik-leuk - Nog 1 antwoord
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