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Thus, the observed data are not consistent with a herd immunity theory, though they make a ton of sense with effective lockdowns. Kudos to the authors for putting this together. 6/END
Thanks Natalie! One quick additional comment on immunological 'dark matter' (also goes for 'genetic resistance'). If we indeed had a lot of 'dark matter', we wouldn't expect super spreading events to have such high attack rates (~80-90%).
To me, the fact that the attack rates are so high during these events is really the best evidence to show that almost all of us are susceptible - sure, there might be some 'dark matter', but if it exists, it's very low.
I completely agree. Are there any papers or has anyone compiled info on these super-spreading event? I think a formal analysis across geographies and age-groups would be very informative.
It's an awesome study! Thank you for all your hard work! Quick question, has anyone compared mobility data to infection rate? Sweden didn't lock down, however, I assume that the population started taking precautions anyway.
Not a policed lock down, but recommendations for social distancing, avoiding public transport, traveling, risk group self isolation etc. And “recommendations aren’t tips, the shall be followed”. Compare mobility Sweden v Norway.pic.twitter.com/bnHkKf9i2W
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