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Japan managing to avoid an explosive outbreak has been surprising. Not even the officials understand exactly why. But a lot of contact tracing (cluster busting) plus clear public health messaging (avoid 3 C’s = indoor conversation) has surely helped.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/did-japan-just-beat-the-virus-without-lockdowns-or-mass-testing …
Based on recent data and the fact that places opening up don’t necessarily see resumed spread, maybe a lot of the early epi curves were comprised of super spreading events? Maybe Japan’s effort (+ face masks) are particularly good at avoiding those? Would be good news if true!
... and the reason I'm extra excited about this is that if it really is k = ~0.2 as opposed to k = ~1, then we can totally get this sucker under control in the near-term - including local near-eradication via strong test, trace, isolate strategies.
... and, importantly, Japan’s 3C strategy is especially well-suited for avoiding (minimizing) super-spreading events. /fin
I think so. Transmission seems to be very context-specific. Virtually 0 outdoors clusters, lots of indoors clusters. Indoors clusters nearly always with rather long exposure. Seems to spread fast mainly because it's stealthy. Alter context -> alter transmission.
It's looking more and more like that, yeah. Sort of like the 80-20 rule. Also interested in hearing epidemiologists' views on this: https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1263996410678165504?s=19 … Any responses would be much appreciated.
Between-household transmission inefficient, but within-household transmission very efficient. And so on.
It is seeming more and more like wearing a mask, a very simple action, is the most important one for prevention of disease spread. And that makes @realDonaldTrump ‘s defiance seem even more absurd. #COVIDー19
Or maybe they are based on pure BS.
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