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This also means John can go back to writing his sequel - I propose calling it "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False - with Personal Examples from Ongoing Pandemics". I'll just link to this excellent thread:https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577?s=20 …
Finally, I should clarify - when I say the data are in, I don't mean that these results should be seen as final - they're preliminary. However, I strongly believe that by now it is clear (as it has been from the beginning) that exposures are low and we shouldn't bet on miracles.
References: Spain: https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/PrimerosDatosEstudioENECOVID19.aspx?fbclid=IwAR0askXAC4Is4rSY8EHR6S9TYAMZQWh6mAvuHNyUjNgiZP3TWe6Sj3pcwGo … Italy: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098442v1 … Sweden: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ … Denmark: https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/de-forste-forelobige-resultater-af-undersogelsen-for-covid-19-i-befolkningen-er-nu-klar … Norway:https://www.nrk.no/norge/nye-fhi-beregninger_-viruset-er-mindre-utbredt_-men-mer-dodelig-1.15021397 …
Gratuitous snark and swipes -- who is talking about miracles? It is legitimate to ask: What levels of seroprevalence are associated with declining growth and why? What is the slope of the mortality curve? Is COVID-19 growth ever truly exponential? Do aggressive NPIs matter?
Wait - is there a reliable antibody test now?
And all those studies imply an IFR of about 1%. Pretty consistent.
I see & applaud your use of “data” as both plural & singular in separate tweets, in an apparent nod to the recent discourse agreeing that both cases are okey dokey. While I’m in the “data are” camp (I did 3 years of Latin), it’s not a hill that I would choose to die on.
Could it also be that people aren’t producing antibodies after contracting Covid?
Or, people are not developing immunity. That is actually pretty common with Coronaviruses and why the pig vaccines are only expected to cover birth and a short window after. They don't cover for even a year, because antibodies don't develop well.
No, it's not false. The seroprevalence studies finding under 5% are still picking up way more cases that went undetected compared to detected. It doesn't tell us much about transmissibility. The lockdown measures (almost definitely) interfered with what would have been.
But almost all of those countries stopped the spread early. Britain, and US, will be the more interesting ones. I’m not saying they’ll be super high, but 10% wouldn’t surprise me
It’s 4% nationally in the US. It’s low outside NY, NJ, CT, MA and a few other states.
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