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A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low. Spain ~5% Italy ~5% Sweden ~5% Denmark ~1% Norway < 1% Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.
This also means John can go back to writing his sequel - I propose calling it "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False - with Personal Examples from Ongoing Pandemics". I'll just link to this excellent thread:https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577?s=20 …
Finally, I should clarify - when I say the data are in, I don't mean that these results should be seen as final - they're preliminary. However, I strongly believe that by now it is clear (as it has been from the beginning) that exposures are low and we shouldn't bet on miracles.
References: Spain: https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/PrimerosDatosEstudioENECOVID19.aspx?fbclid=IwAR0askXAC4Is4rSY8EHR6S9TYAMZQWh6mAvuHNyUjNgiZP3TWe6Sj3pcwGo … Italy: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098442v1 … Sweden: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ … Denmark: https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/de-forste-forelobige-resultater-af-undersogelsen-for-covid-19-i-befolkningen-er-nu-klar … Norway:https://www.nrk.no/norge/nye-fhi-beregninger_-viruset-er-mindre-utbredt_-men-mer-dodelig-1.15021397 …
Wonder how someone with his credentials can lose it this much, he’s america’s Johan Giesecke.
Love your suggested title.
I would add that when testing a population where the vast majority of people would test negative, the influence of the false positive rate on results is amplified: If you test a population that is 95% true negative, a 5% false positive rate would yield 4-5% positive results. 
Once you burn your credibility and publicize bad science in newspaper editorials leaving everyone else to clean up the mess, I’m sure there are some hard feelings
Burn...
I would be more careful in these statements @K_H_Andersen: the Italian data, for instance, are from a sample of healthy blood donors in Milan ... hardly a representative sample of the population. Much more careful, actually.
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