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Just putting it out there - I believe our *actual* target has to be >50 million tests a day... Obviously that can't be done via a centralized testing model, but possibly via simplified saliva rapid diagnostic tests (not currently available). Crazy? Maybe. Let's see in ~3 months.https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1258367479467986946 …
Why? Because we're so far behind the curve on controlling SARS-CoV-2 and whether we like it or not (we don't...) states will start to open. In the short term, I think RDTs could make a huge difference - testing at work, testing before you get into the restaurant, etc.
Unlike centralized and coordinated test, trace, isolate strategies (which will still be critical!), RDT innovation will come via academia and industry, while uptake will be driven by market demand - e.g., consumers and companies [...]
[...] Wouldn't you rather go to the restaurant testing customers vs the one that doesn't? Wouldn't you want your employer to do regular testing so you know you're safer? Wouldn't you want to take a test before visiting your old parents? At-risk friends and family?
I think these factors will drive demand, there are no limits on innovation, and central coordination not essential. While we don't have RDTs currently, I'm very optimistic we'll see the first generation within a month or two. Others - more accurate ones - will come and can scale.
Until we have effective drugs and (likely later) a vaccine, I strongly believe RDTs (together with e.g., physical distancing, and other measures) will make a huge difference in the way we deal with SARS-CoV-2 - and, importantly, help ensure we can more safely reopen. #newnormal.
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