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Thanks Kristian. Indeed very tricky. And a similar situation to your work on GP A82V in Ebola. In that case there was confounding with Sierra Leone introduction.
Yup, the epi data from the A82V study was so confounded that it was inconclusive (the epi data here, less so). Importantly the Ebola study had experimental data to support a role for A82V in increasing infectivity of human cell, but did that affect transmission? Probably not.
Exactly. Even with experimental data hard to ascribe transmission consequence. Here, I think following multiple overlapping D vs G transmission chains is probably the next step in analysis.
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