Hold onto your hats. Get blown away with the first big seroprevalance report are coming out. And the fatality rate just got bottomed out to influenza levels.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 …
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Great thread. IMO the study is a complete failure of Bayesian logic: (1) The CI of their measurements fall entirely within the CI of their specificity; (2) Their conversion to incidence is not appropriate; (3) The only thing they can really conclude is that prevalence is 'low'.
So based on this study we can (a) conclude that seroprevalence is low (but not exactly *how* low), but most importantly - (b) we *cannot* conclude that the true number of cases is 60x-80x higher than known cases. Pretty epic statistical errors IMO.
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First, the lost of folks putting their name behind this study are significant, this isn’t some out-of-the-nowhere paper. - the findings are in line with half-a-dozen others studies. - this is the first of 5+ studies being done by this group
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Is this actually what the ad said ? That would be horrible.
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I blame common core. None of this would have happened if we still knew how to “carry the one”.pic.twitter.com/L7YvUzzzfP
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