Hold onto your hats. Get blown away with the first big seroprevalance report are coming out. And the fatality rate just got bottomed out to influenza levels.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 …
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I went ahead and made a thread about it, since others seem to have the same questions. These are the main conclusions.https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309227760467974?s=20 …
Great thread. IMO the study is a complete failure of Bayesian logic: (1) The CI of their measurements fall entirely within the CI of their specificity; (2) Their conversion to incidence is not appropriate; (3) The only thing they can really conclude is that prevalence is 'low'.
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So based on this study we can (a) conclude that seroprevalence is low (but not exactly *how* low), but most importantly - (b) we *cannot* conclude that the true number of cases is 60x-80x higher than known cases. Pretty epic statistical errors IMO.
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Folks. Many of the critiques and challenges of the study are acknowledged by the authors in the paper. They account for numerous biases in their analysis. This is one set of data points. Soon: - 10K MLB employees - LA county - Dallas Fortworth area Trends. Hold tight.
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Also - these are no slouches. Did you read the list of authors signed onto this? Prof. ioannadis basically fathered the modern movement of this domain.
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Strange this coming out now. I’m seeing a bizarre constellation of misinformation and disinformation emerging ... right as Trump’s “plan” to “reopen the country” has been released. Wondering if there is a nefarious “population titration” plan in play.
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Been noticing this as well. This story and others regarding efficacy of Remdesivir and HCQ all coming out at the same time as the push to reopen. Recipe for disaster.
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Hi Kristian, if you get time, could you kindly explain/clarify point 1) ? Thanks
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Vyom he is just saying the error bars on the accuracy of the test are larger than infection rate measured. The true number of infections could be 0.001% to 5%. The whole study is total a pile of steaming manure.
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So... I just realised who 2 of the authors of the study are - John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya. He seems mighty pleased that
#covid19 is about as bad as influenza. Published this 1 hour ago.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGUgrEfSgaU …Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
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I'm going to wait just a minute before concluding that the Stanford professor is a complete fraud and quack.
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Who suggested that
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