From my talk earlier today. Do you agree / disagree? I'd love to hear arguments for why my timeline is too pessimistic.pic.twitter.com/P6VkPgVeVD
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I would expect the earliest efficacy trials to start in the summer. If the sites are selected well & the outbreak persists, endpoints could accrue in as few as 3 months. So is the 3 years because you think the first crop of vaccines aren’t going to work?
Yeah, I think we're going to have significant difficulty properly inducing immunity. The SARS-CoV-2 spike is complex with a lot of glycosylations and I hear unstable (from the x-ray folks). Then there's ADE. So I don't think it'll be as easy as plugging S into e.g., an AdVac.
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3 years still strikes me as a long time. With so many products being developed in parallel & so quickly, I am more hopeful. Even something with 50% efficacy (and no enhancement) would help. But certainly we need to pursue the trace & isolate option as if it takes that long.
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Yeah, I agree it seems like a long time, but in vaccinology, three years would be blazingly fast. One important thing - I'm not saying we *couldn't* have a vaccine in a year, however, realistically I think it'll take longer and should be what we need to plan for.
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We all have faith your community of kindred spirits will figure it out, and save us all.
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I’m curious what your thoughts are on the different platforms (not necessarily particular products), and which you think have the potential to be most immunogenic and least prone to enhancement. If you are willing to share your insights!
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