From my talk earlier today. Do you agree / disagree? I'd love to hear arguments for why my timeline is too pessimistic.pic.twitter.com/P6VkPgVeVD
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Thanks for the talk, I really enjoyed it! This was certainly the most stunning slide. I had thought that the previous development of a (multiple?) MERS vaccine allowed for the more optimistic (18 mo) timeline on the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.
Thanks. And yes, I considered the fact that previous developments on SARS / MERS helps us, but the main issue here is that those vaccines have really conflicting data (e.g., having to deal with ADE). Vaccines typically take 10+ years, so if we can do it in 4, that'd be win(ish).
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I think *if* the mRNA vaccines work we can have a vaccine faster than your timeline given how they're being fast-tracked. Not sure how production scales on those tho. I guess overall I might say quicker than year 4. The CoV field veterans seem fairly unconcerned about ADE.
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What I'm actually most pessimistic about is the test, trace, isolate now or year 1. I just don't see any evidence the U.S. is building that capacity at the needed scale.
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