Kristian G. AndersenGeverifieerd account

Can you explain your intended distinction between “experimental vaccines” and “vaccine”? Does the first mean “completed efficacy trial but not available at scale”?

Yeah, that's basically it - I expect that there will be smaller scale availability of early-stage / experimental vaccines, but not yet ready for a world-wide vaccination campaign. Additional safety/efficacy data will come from those, culminating in a final vaccine(s).

Thanks for the talk, I really enjoyed it! This was certainly the most stunning slide. I had thought that the previous development of a (multiple?) MERS vaccine allowed for the more optimistic (18 mo) timeline on the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

Thanks. And yes, I considered the fact that previous developments on SARS / MERS helps us, but the main issue here is that those vaccines have really conflicting data (e.g., having to deal with ADE). Vaccines typically take 10+ years, so if we can do it in 4, that'd be win(ish).

Based on my XP w vaccine pathways (inc flu & Ebola) I think Yr3 for experimental vaccines & Yr4 for a vaccine are definitely too pessimistic. I would say likely experimental vax within 12-15mths, w regulatory fast tracks & global manufacturing commitment vaccine by Yr2 end.

I agree though that the immunity challenge is a live issue and may be the unique variable here.

I think a vaccine won't be that tricky. 18 months.

Good! Round on me in a pub in London if you're right... If not, you owe me a virtual beer.

Weirdly I've found myself cringing at the word 'cure' in all contexts now. Not sure when I started hating it and preferring 'treat'...