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... and here I'm just doing a straight up regression with a single variable (doubling time) - real models are much more complex and have many more variables, most of which are uncertain at this time. YET, e.g., @MRC_Outbreak have managed to provide many very useful models!
4/n
Note - I'm in no way a modeler, so take all of what I just said with that in mind - including if you double-check my calculations above... 
5/n
I'm not a (very) professionel modeler of infectious disease epidemiology either, but I've learned two lessons during the past 3 weeks: [1] Don't (ever) play with exponential models, and [3] Treat models with e.g. third degree polynomials as if they were nitroglycerine!
And always remember... "Essentially, all the models are wrong, but some are useful."
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