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Some countries - e.g.
- are talking about slowly building herd immunity against #COVID19. IMO this is the wrong strategy - three points:
1. Herd immunity would require 70% immune
2. Immunity to SARS appears to be short (?)
3. @MRC_Outbreak estimates 1% currently infected in pic.twitter.com/1itcIFVlLi
Given these factors, trying to slowly build herd immunity in a population with a virus with Re~2.5 and CFR~1.5% isn't realistic - especially since we currently don't understand immunity to HCoV-19. We must instead focus on using the Asian model of testing, tracing, and isolating.
I obviously hope I'm wrong - that immunity is much longer lasting (life-long, please!) and a lot of people get infected without having symptoms (while still becoming immune) - but until we have data, I would rather not hope and instead focus on proven strategies (look to Asia!).
One key extra question - I have been looking at papers investigating longevity of antibody responses to SARS-CoV (not HCoV-19) in human survivors and it appears IgGs start rapidly declining after ~ 2 years. Are there better studies? Do we know longevity of cellular immunity?
... and since I forgot to mention this last night - we obviously want to get herd immunity in the population, but via a vaccine. The ‘test and trace’ strategy will buy us time to get to that stage (likely a 3-5 year timeline).
Immunity is a
Virus is evolving too. + R0 relatively low.
"But among all this uncertainty, I can say for sure that there is one thing that I would never have seen coming: the discussion about herd immunity. It is so out of the blue..."https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic …
If what you mean with "Re~2.5" is R0 - then the situation is even worse than you think: 2.5 was a very early estimate for R0. Its closer to 4.5 !!! Do the math - uncontrolled the virus has a doubling time of less than 3 days - with an average incubation time of 5 days ...
... with an average incubation time of 5 days, that's not possible if every infected person averages only another 2.5 new infections!
I understood the problem as though it can easily spread without any visible indicator and that it has already spread too much, meaning that we would basically have to test everyone - all the time. And we have lacked capacity even to test the critically exposed. What am I missing?
I think quickly realized HCoV-19 cannot be contained in our society. This is also supported by this paper. But I am also sure they didn't take mobile phone technology in to account. The 
will learn a lot from this pandemichttps://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6936 …
Saluti, here is your unroll: @K_G_Andersen: Some countries - e.g. - are talking about slowly building herd immunity against #COVID19. IMO this is… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1245216348377993217.html … Have a good day. 
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