Je kan informatie over je locatie aan je Tweets toevoegen, bijvoorbeeld je stad of exacte locatie, via het web en applicaties van derden. Je kan altijd de locatiegeschiedenis van je Tweets verwijderen. Meer informatie
Some countries - e.g.
- are talking about slowly building herd immunity against #COVID19. IMO this is the wrong strategy - three points:
1. Herd immunity would require 70% immune
2. Immunity to SARS appears to be short (?)
3. @MRC_Outbreak estimates 1% currently infected in pic.twitter.com/1itcIFVlLi
Given these factors, trying to slowly build herd immunity in a population with a virus with Re~2.5 and CFR~1.5% isn't realistic - especially since we currently don't understand immunity to HCoV-19. We must instead focus on using the Asian model of testing, tracing, and isolating.
I obviously hope I'm wrong - that immunity is much longer lasting (life-long, please!) and a lot of people get infected without having symptoms (while still becoming immune) - but until we have data, I would rather not hope and instead focus on proven strategies (look to Asia!).
One key extra question - I have been looking at papers investigating longevity of antibody responses to SARS-CoV (not HCoV-19) in human survivors and it appears IgGs start rapidly declining after ~ 2 years. Are there better studies? Do we know longevity of cellular immunity?
... and since I forgot to mention this last night - we obviously want to get herd immunity in the population, but via a vaccine. The ‘test and trace’ strategy will buy us time to get to that stage (likely a 3-5 year timeline).
The Dutch government is trying this as well. They floated the idea a week or two ago, got their throats ripped out, and backed off from it. Then 2 days ago, the health agency made a cute little video on how it will "work". Government rejects a lockdown.https://twitter.com/rivm/status/1244635801259999233 …
Oh, I wasn't aware of that (that they've still not changed course!) - I had assumed the change of mind/outlook at the Imperial College London group would have killed that approach across the EU... :( . I don't know your numbers, but no lockdown yet sounds really bad (Sweden also)
You could add 4) 2nd order effects are potentially huge 5) the model parameters in e.g. SIR models are extremely sensitive to errors 6) we currently have poor data & use assumptions as a consequence (—> vulnerable to errors) 7) we don’t know lasting effects from recovered cases
We can probably manage to delay the mass killing a little before we give up on getting a vaccine.
It should be relatively straightforward to come up with a vaccine; the homotrimer spike protein might work alone and am guessing it is quite easy to reconstitute a virus around junk RNA. It's verifying that the vaccine is safe and that it actually protects that is the problem.
We really do want herd immunity. It is what everyone wants. And if we cannot kill the virus fast it is our only chance. The best way to achieve herd immunity is through a rigorous vaccination process. Let’s try that if at all possible.
Twitter is mogelijk overbelast of ondervindt een tijdelijke onderbreking. Probeer het opnieuw of bekijk de Twitter-status voor meer informatie.
