Kristian G. AndersenGeverifieerd account

I struggle with how to convey this and 1) be taken seriously not as alarmist 2) what is the value of telling individual people these things when each of us has very limited influence? Talking about people who are distancing rigorously etc

So just to be explicit about that math, we have 2 more weeks on this trajectory, and a doubling every 2.5 days. That means 5.6 doublings, or 48.5x increase over now (1.5k deaths). So that means WE WILL HAVE 75,000 DEATHS IN THE US IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS pls tell me I'm wrong

The math isn’t my lane, j guess I could sit down and check it. I suppose we’re hoping we can slow that doubling time but obviously the situation in certain places is quite grave.

sigh, I need to avoid these back of the envelope calcs. Probably best to still fall back on that IC paper https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …. Still, projecting deaths over the next two weeks somehow seems much more real to me than over months...

Most of the US has been in soft shutdown for two weeks. I was hoping to see the curve changing this week.

Lombardy has been in *full lockdown* (e.g. police enforcement, mandatory self-certification required to leave your home, walking strictly limited within one block of your residence) since March 8. There are no signs of the of the daily death rate significantly slowing down yet.

I think the number of new cases has slightly slowed and at this point that might be a better indicator. But still way too soon to get excited.

None of the numbers have slowed in Italy unfortunately - in fact, I don't think we have seen any lockdowns outside Hubei being effective. That's not to say they won't be, it just means we currently don't have any data points. 'Slow' lockdowns likely will have no effects.