.... because we acted much too late. Look to New York and we’ll see that growing at a similar rate for the next ~ two weeks as if nothing happened. Then hit an apex followed by slow decline. Like me, you have probably dove the math - suffice to say, it’s not good.
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I think the number of new cases has slightly slowed and at this point that might be a better indicator. But still way too soon to get excited.
None of the numbers have slowed in Italy unfortunately - in fact, I don't think we have seen any lockdowns outside Hubei being effective. That's not to say they won't be, it just means we currently don't have any data points. 'Slow' lockdowns likely will have no effects.
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Actually it looks like Italy is slowing from log growth. This graph, which I watch religiously, from
@jburnmurdochpic.twitter.com/UsA9wRdDrI
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Region specific again showing Italy backing down from log growthpic.twitter.com/P8qXrVaqVt
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As somebody who is supposedly in a lockdown country, it appears to all fail at the execution of it all. People don't listen to the extent and amount they have to and look to get around things as much as they can.
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Far too many people still go to work. people go shopping a lot. The weather is nice and many just find excuses to go out etc. It just doesn't work that way
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Yea you're right. I don't understand though why in Westchester County north of NYC (where I'm from) which had the first big NY cluster it does seem to have slowed dramatically. Don't know what's driving those kinds of events.
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