This is drivelhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464 …
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Drivel indeed and irresponsible to boot. Marc, have you considered your model in light of observations outside Asia? To me it seems the sCFR is significantly higher than we might expect from Wuhan (closer to 5% than 1% based on my own naive estimates).
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How did you arrive at 5%, that is a horrifyingly high number
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The sCFR was calculated at 12% in Wuhan when the hospitals were overwhelmed, before China started building hospitals in days and bringing squadrons of medics from across China to help. With that extra effort, they were able to reduce sCFR to 4%pic.twitter.com/Qft5CyRF9T
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As I have been trying to point out to people, we wouldn’t have hospitals if they didn’t save lives. If 12-17% of otherwise healthy youngish people get sick enough to require hospitalization, it isn’t a stretch to imagine a 5% CFR when they can’t get medical care.
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Looking at the numbers I noticed it in the last days as well. I suspect that the numbers of CoVid-19 related deaths reported from China might be underreported due to a variety of factors such as testing ?
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Well, that's disturbing. How did you arrive at 5%?
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what he said.
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Lack of infrastructure will cause CFR to skyrocket. Simple analogy: McDonald's sells 2 billion burgers a year. I wonder what would happen to their system if I go order 1 million at the drive-thru.
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For those asking how do we arrive at 4-5%? China's recoveries are approaching their total number of infections and serve as a microcosm like China's clinical studies did in January/early-mid February (based on John Hopkins data). Every nation was warned many days in advance.pic.twitter.com/GNZo2Qx8l3
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In addition, it was clear to see from the beginning that 1 to 3 in 100 compared to 1 in 1000 for currently circulating flu virus was going to happen. Even at 1%, every NATION should have been immediately preparing, but alas! Most people only believe what they see with eyes.
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what? 5% sounds pretty scary. At 60% infection that's fricking 225 million people of
#COVID19 In 2017 there were 56 million deaths globally for everything. -
sCFR = symptomatic case fatality ratio. You need to take into account what proportion of the infected are asymptomatic.
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