Seeing a handful of tweets announcing #COVIDー19 deaths in my feed today. Terrified this is going to explode in the coming days...
-
Extrapolating from China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea will, IMO, result in massive calibration error. We are not taking the steps in magnitude and timeliness that they achieved, therefore we should not expect our experience to be similar.
I agree - however, *any* effect of social distancing will be visible by decreasing the slope of the curve. We're (sadly) unlikely to see similar dramatic decreases as those observed in Asia, but that doesn't mean we won't see any decrease.
-
-
I don't think we will *see* a change in the log slope because we will be testing more then, too much confounding...I would worry that when the effects of social distancing are not apparent in the cdf in 2-3 weeks, then people will want to abandon sensible precautions/policies
-
We're talking about the # of deaths - not the # of confirmed cases. The former is more robust to confounding.
- Nog 1 antwoord
Nieuw gesprek -
Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
Twitter is mogelijk overbelast of ondervindt een tijdelijke onderbreking. Probeer het opnieuw of bekijk de Twitter-status voor meer informatie.