Seeing a handful of tweets announcing #COVIDー19 deaths in my feed today. Terrified this is going to explode in the coming days...
It shouldn't 'explode' - it'll increase exponentially with an average doubling rate of ~3 days (which might look like an explosion, but isn't). If measures of social distancing are working, then it will start flattening out in ~2-3 weeks.
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exponential growth w/ doubling every 3 days is effing scary, even if for only 2-3 weeks... But point well taken -- precise language is better here...
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Given current availability of tests & PPE, number of states enforcing social distancing, (lack of) infection control/syndromic surveillance at airports and grocery stores, and evidence social distancing is not working; I don't think we should expect a flattening in 2-3 weeks.
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Extrapolating from China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea will, IMO, result in massive calibration error. We are not taking the steps in magnitude and timeliness that they achieved, therefore we should not expect our experience to be similar.
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This is what happened in Wuhan in Jan-Feb, l watched the number doubled every 5 days, then 3 days. Very scary! I hope this exponential increase won't happen in the US and Canada. But, we can't deny a trace of unpreparedness and mismanagement seen in Wuhan has found its way here.
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Maybe face mask will help more , when social distancing in crowded grocery store/ pharmacy is very hard to achieve. Given many people infected are asymptomatic, it is also very hard for people to determine themselves are “healthy “ or “infected but asymptomatic.
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Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
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