This article on #coronavirus case fatality rate is spot on. Thanks for moving beyond a soundbite @juliaoftorontohttps://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1235601474618523651 …
-
Given an exponential increase in the number of cases (which is what we observe in many places), not taking into account epidemic growth is going to dwarf out any effect milder cases will have on rates - especially since the frequency of asymptomatics appear to be low. 3/n
So statements like this "South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they’ve picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That’s a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent" 4/n
-
-
ends up being wrong - because epidemic growth isn't taken into consideration. The CFR (while much too early to estimate accurately) actually trends at ~3-4% in South Korea when you take epidemic growth into consideration - not 0.5%. 5/n
-
This is also the main reason this figure shows a decrease in rates - earlier time points have most patients having known outcomes, but in the more recent estimates the dead haven't died yet. 6/npic.twitter.com/7JAzeRWR5b
- Nog 2 antwoorden
Nieuw gesprek -
-
-
But that prefaced by the US example to show how unreliable current estimates are.
Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
-
Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
Twitter is mogelijk overbelast of ondervindt een tijdelijke onderbreking. Probeer het opnieuw of bekijk de Twitter-status voor meer informatie.