This article on #coronavirus case fatality rate is spot on. Thanks for moving beyond a soundbite @juliaoftorontohttps://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1235601474618523651 …
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The most important point is that you don't take epidemic growth into consideration (which will increase the CFR). You correctly identify the role of asymptomatics and mild cases (decreasing the rate), but those are not part of CFRs - they're part of infection fatalities. 2/n
Given an exponential increase in the number of cases (which is what we observe in many places), not taking into account epidemic growth is going to dwarf out any effect milder cases will have on rates - especially since the frequency of asymptomatics appear to be low. 3/n
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So statements like this "South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they’ve picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That’s a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent" 4/n
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ends up being wrong - because epidemic growth isn't taken into consideration. The CFR (while much too early to estimate accurately) actually trends at ~3-4% in South Korea when you take epidemic growth into consideration - not 0.5%. 5/n
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