This article on #coronavirus case fatality rate is spot on. Thanks for moving beyond a soundbite @juliaoftorontohttps://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1235601474618523651 …
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These are same points made in the Times article so I am not sure what the discrepancy is.
Thanks Julia for reaching out to try and clarify. I unfortunately can't point out every mistake as there are many. The main issue is that the rates are calculated incorrectly - see here for how to more accurately calculating CFRs: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ … 1/n
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The most important point is that you don't take epidemic growth into consideration (which will increase the CFR). You correctly identify the role of asymptomatics and mild cases (decreasing the rate), but those are not part of CFRs - they're part of infection fatalities. 2/n
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Given an exponential increase in the number of cases (which is what we observe in many places), not taking into account epidemic growth is going to dwarf out any effect milder cases will have on rates - especially since the frequency of asymptomatics appear to be low. 3/n
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We used those rates (Tedros and South Korea) to illustrate the current problems with current CFR and lead to point that only sero testing and time will give a more accurate picture - and even then it’ll be diff in each country
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I’m truly puzzled. I have just reread the article and see no errors. Please email me with specific corrections.
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