This article on #coronavirus case fatality rate is spot on. Thanks for moving beyond a soundbite @juliaoftorontohttps://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1235601474618523651 …
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Unfortunately the article calculates CFRs wrong as it does not take into consideration epidemic growth (one main reason S. Korea is so low - and why the displayed graph shows lower CFRs over time). This mistake leads to very wrong numbers. More here:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html …
We all want these numbers to be low, but trying to dispel one flawed estimate by providing several additional flawed estimates (to lower the numbers) is problematic. Fact is - we unfortunately don't have good estimates at the moment and it'll take time before we do.
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Hm this was the point I was trying to make in the piece - maybe it wasn’t clear enough
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I think those points are made, but the problem is that then a whole new set of problems are introduced - as many as you're trying to clarify. The NYT articles lays out the issues very well - and Adam has posted a lot of good threads on the issues with CFRs.
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Thanks. I like the piece because it clarified that this number isnt static. My layperson read of is that this rate is unknown, and here are some illustrations of how it can vary. I’ve just read so many claims & blame-games that this piece read like a straight-forward explanation.
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Agreed - many issues. And yes, it reads like a straightforward explanation, but the problem is that it makes many of the same mistakes it's trying to solve. I suggest reading the NYT article instead and also Adam's tweets on this.
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Higher than seasonal flu, lower than SARS is about as specific as I feel about it right now.
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Agreed. Although I have to add - 'much higher' than the seasonal flu (pandemic flu is different). So many comparisons to seasonal flu and it's unfortunately counterproductive at the moment - it's important to understand that this is much different in terms of potential.
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