@WHO just announced that the case fatality rate for #SARSCoV2 #HCoV19 #COVID19 #coronavirus is 3.4%. It’s important to recognize that this number will change as more cases are reported. This number is global.
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Please note that these numbers are not CFRs - they're PFCs, which will be much lower. Unfortunately, correcting for epidemic growth in the countries from the table, the estimated CFRs are significantly higher - trending at 3-5%. Hugely biased at this stage though.
This is especially true for South Korea where they have done a lot of recent testing. Correction leads to Iran and Italy being off the chart, but that's likely because they got taken by surprised and most early cases were severe. Those (corrected) numbers will definitely go down.
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Hi there, I'm not an epidemiologist but have always wondered if there is a better way to estimate CFR: If we know disease progression to death averages to 2 weeks, would it be valid to compare deaths currently to number of confirmed cases from 2 weeks ago?
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That way your number will be biased by too soon deceased new patients. You should take all detected from one time frame and calculate CFR only based on their cases. Hence you can't do it with generic numbers presented to public, you need more info on per case basis.
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