@WHO just announced that the case fatality rate for #SARSCoV2 #HCoV19 #COVID19 #coronavirus is 3.4%. It’s important to recognize that this number will change as more cases are reported. This number is global.
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Please note that these numbers are not CFRs - they're PFCs, which will be much lower. Unfortunately, correcting for epidemic growth in the countries from the table, the estimated CFRs are significantly higher - trending at 3-5%. Hugely biased at this stage though.
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This is especially true for South Korea where they have done a lot of recent testing. Correction leads to Iran and Italy being off the chart, but that's likely because they got taken by surprised and most early cases were severe. Those (corrected) numbers will definitely go down.
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Hi there, I'm not an epidemiologist but have always wondered if there is a better way to estimate CFR: If we know disease progression to death averages to 2 weeks, would it be valid to compare deaths currently to number of confirmed cases from 2 weeks ago?
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For anyone else trying to learn the jargon let me save you a googling:https://virologydownunder.com/the-proportion-of-fatal-cases-pfc/ …
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Thank you very much
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Any idea why the WHO, Chinese CDC, NPR, The Guardian, Vox, Washington Post, virologists, and many more confuse the two? Innumeracy? Laziness? Fraud?
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