Main issue is that we don't know. The best estimates I have seen hover just around 1% with high variability across age groups. In Hubei (with overrun hospitals) it's ~2.5%. Main issue - it seems to be 5x - 10x seasonal flu (but personal risk still *very* low).
-
Given the epi curve correction, the numbers from Italy look quite grim. 229 confirmed cases on February 24th and 34 deaths reported today?
Italy failed to detect cases early so there's a bias towards more severe cases in the beginning - hence the CFR is inflated. It'll likely be lower as time goes by. Again, trying to estimate any type of CFR at this stage is fraught with issues and estimates are unreliable.
-
-
BTW, do we have numbers of infected for children ? Say < 10 years old? Given the epicenter was Wuhan w low child rate, exposure may not have been as high as May be in US? Thoughts ?
-
Thinking of differences in population pyramids. The absolute number of cases at age group may not be sufficient to confidently determine whether infection and death rate is actually lower ?
Einde van gesprek
Nieuw gesprek -
Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
Twitter is mogelijk overbelast of ondervindt een tijdelijke onderbreking. Probeer het opnieuw of bekijk de Twitter-status voor meer informatie.