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I think it's far too early to say anything about their CFR. From symptom onset to death is 2-8 weeks, on average, @WHO says. The vast majority of the South Korean cases have been diagnosed in the past 2 weeks. They haven't been sick long enough for us to know outcomes.
Those numbers are unfortunately not adjusted for the epidemic curve, so 22 deaths at this stage is high. Once all outcomes are known this would suggest a CFR in the 3-5% range, which is similar to China. Good explainer here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct …
The issue is that CFR is not deaths (dayX) / cases (dayX), but rather deaths (dayX) / cases (dayX-T) with T being average time to death (6-7 days for COVID-19). A week ago S. Korea had ~500 cases, so it becomes 22/500 ~ 4.5% after correcting for new cases.
* Note: 6-7 days for T is very conservative - the real number is likely higher, which would drive the rate higher. However, all of this assumes consistent (and unbiased) testing, which is clearly not the case and would likely lower the rate.
Yes. 2% probably the lower bound.
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