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Right, we have NO idea of the denominator (N), especially in the US where so little diagnostic testing has been done. If could easily turn out to be closer to flu as we get a handle on N.
The studies I’m referring to do have accurate(ish) denominators, however, many assumptions influence the estimates. My main point being - I unfortunately don’t believe the CFR will be anywhere near as low for COVID-19 as seasonal flu (but still low in terms of personal risk!).
OK, I haven't seen any data with surveillance screening vs CFR (eg South Korea). But such data doesn't exist in the US, where the opportunity to get ahead of it was totally botched. CFR may indeed show marked geographic variation. And no true N anywhere that I can see.
Yeah, those types of studies will be helpful + serosurveys. Doing the same for seasonal flu though, would similarly bring that one down - possibly by a lot (seasonal flu is probably ~ 0.01%). Largest current study on COVID-19 CFR with known(ish) N:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420 …
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