@K_G_Andersen mortality for Diamond Princess is ~0.86%, everybody tested incl. mild cases. Are cruises an accurate rep. of demographics?
Demographically, I don't know how representative Diamond Princess is exactly - I'd need to see linelisted data to understand that question. It's a very important study case though, as it's similar to a 'controlled' experiment and will provide us valuable information.
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Specifically, the studies coming out investigating R0 and level of asymptomatic cases are very valuable, as again, exposures are similar and 'controlled'. It's still too early to get exact CFRs - but ~1% would be believable - question is, what's the spread across ages.
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One thing is bugging me. This would mean either China underreported by a much smaller margin than I assumed, or something else is going on.
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Yes, it seems perhaps China’s underreporting was only maybe by factor of 3-5? Which means their measures have been effective. Which means they will have to continue for a long time, which means supply chains may be offline longer than hoped.
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