Very interesting: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/27/c_138735677.htm …
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen
Let’s just hang on a bit longer...
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Als antwoord op @edwardcholmes @K_G_Andersen
What do you guys make of this report that the earliest case had no connection to the market? Missing data? A second wildlife source that didn't quite take off?
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Als antwoord op @stgoldst @K_G_Andersen
Hard to say. I did some tweets about this earlier today but I’m too stupid to know how to forward them.
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I spotted something in the family report too. Was that the ‘index’?
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Difficult to say as these people were not sampled and we don't have any virus sequences from that.
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But phylogeny aside (heresy I know) but certainly either H2H or other foci of potential spillover? Difficult to prove I accept.
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By now, entirely H2H, no question. There might have been initial seeding to a small cluster of people, but this is spreading via H2H and has been doing so almost since the beginning. (assuming sequences are representative)
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So any views on WHO assertion (that I haven’t heard personally) that not much contribution from asymptomatic/mild disease?
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Too early to tell IMO. A lot of media coverage of "it's spreading during incubation period" and "asymptomatic people are spreading the disease". I'm not saying that's not happening, but I think the data to support such strong claims are pretty slim by now. Time will tell.
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Yea I don’t think any hard data in support of that has been published and CDC isn’t getting behind it yet either. Bad if true, but a big TBD I think.
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It is tricky to deal with this issue. Knowing the scale (if any) of silent shedding r. Important. If it is happening it might be a v.rare event. Still, lots of H2H transmission is not a great thing to see. Not so much so quickly...
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