I'll elaborate more on this later, but for now, please ignore these types of panicked statements. The reproductive number (R0) of a virus is *highly* context and time dependent and *will* change. E.g., SARS was ~3 in the beginning, but <1 after intervention.https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1221455737714565120 …
Should have been more specific - no, I'm not saying that as an inherent property R0 will vary across time (that'd be R in a simple SEIR model). What I'm saying is that in a naive population where a virus e.g., moves from X1 to X2 and X2 has different env/response, R0 will change.
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And separately, yes, R0 *estimates* will vary (likely by a lot) as time goes on. My main point is that R0 isn't some magic number that can be attached to a particular pathogen - it all depends on context. E.g., R0(China) =! R0(UK) for the same virus.
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All that's likely to boil down to though is possible changes in contact structure. The other params that feed into R0 *should* be attached to a particular pathogen. With most cases in large urban centers, contact structure is likely similar so R0(China) may approx R0(UK)
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