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I'll elaborate more on this later, but for now, please ignore these types of panicked statements. The reproductive number (R0) of a virus is *highly* context and time dependent and *will* change. E.g., SARS was ~3 in the beginning, but <1 after intervention.https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1221455737714565120 …
This means that the R0 values that are currently estimated are specific to (a) Wuhan, and (b) (mostly) pre-intervention. The R0 is going to be different for different countries/regions and will change over time.
What we really want to know is what happens to R0 now intervention has been put in place, and importantly what is the R0 going to be in other countries where the virus has been exported to. Likely these will all be significantly lower. So please take these with a grain of salt.
If you want to get a more in-depth look at how R0 is calculated and the factors influencing it, check out @Caroline_OF_B's tweet which has a lot of great background.https://twitter.com/Caroline_OF_B/status/1221628145406742528?s=20 …
You're confusing R0 (the basic reproduction number, defined theoretically at time zero) with the reproduction number at time t (sometimes called the effective reproduction number).
Yeah, I'm aware of the difference between the basic and effective reproduction number, but no, I'm still referring to R0 given that the virus is still spreading through a naive population and for R=R0x, we can largely ignore x (for now). This will of course change and R < R0.
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