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The PREDICT Project has been defunded. I suspect, not because of "the ascension of risk-averse bureaucrats", but rather because there are much better ways of mitigating future outbreaks than hyped 'science'. @nytimes.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/health/predict-usaid-viruses.html …
I disagree with a lot of the assertions made in this article, and don't believe the way PREDICT was set up actually provided solutions to the specified goals. @edwardcholmes, @arambaut, and myself wrote a little commentary about this a while back:https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
We can all agree that outbreak mitigation and prevention are incredibly important goals, which require investments in local capacity and equitable partnership. That is why we are big proponents of One Health approaches, or "Roots, not Parachutes":https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(16)30800-5 …
But IMO, despite the hype, PREDICT (and the spinout, the Global Virome Project) never meaningfully set out to do science that would critically impact our ability to respond to current or future outbreaks.
Having worked extensively on this project, I found this article WAY off the mark. It was not defunded, it ended. Programs end all the time. Also, calling the other USAID programs cookie-cutter undermines the hugely impactful work they have done with tangible results.
And, any virologist can tell you that if you look for viruses, you will find them. That does not mean they will infect humans. Looking for viruses in wildlife is helpful & highly interesting, but did it predict any of the major human outbreaks of Ebola & other diseases? No.
Not to mention that for $200M it obtained 58 swabs. Scientific validity aside of the concept (poor) aside, how can any surveillance program costing $3,448,276 per swab be practical.https://nyti.ms/2oxfiTo
Ok just the dead animal surveillance centerpiece that obtained 58 swabs. Program-wide, 140,000 specimens obtained for $207M. So, at $1,478.57 per specimen you'd need a hell of a lot of early warning from each specimen for this to have any public health utility.
This article is so much like PREDICT itself: hype over substance.
What he said B-)
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