#Zika just keeps on giving...
"Below-average neurodevelopment and/or abnormal eye or hearing assessments were noted in 31.5% of children between 7 and 32 months of age."https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0496-1 …
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Als antwoord op @NathanGrubaugh
Hmmm, I don't know - I'm a little skeptical. Haven't had time to read in detail and I'm not familiar with most of the tests, however: 1. No control group (not acceptable IMO) 2. They talk about below average (as opposed to normal) all the time. We'd assume ~50% would be < avg!
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen
I agree with you regarding the lack of control group - I found it hard to know what should be considered normal (average...). Still, 31% is alarmingly high.
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Als antwoord op @NathanGrubaugh @K_G_Andersen
Agree that control groups are always good - but Bayley scales are regarded as the "gold standard" for neurodevelopment and, as far as I understand, ranges of "normality" have been established in large population-based studies, and validated across settings (including Brazil).
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Als antwoord op @isabelrodbar @NathanGrubaugh
Thanks Isabel, this is helpful - because as I mentioned, I'm not familiar with these tests. However, when they say "below average", do they actually mean "below normal compared to a test validated to a fully matched control group"? If yes, then OK, but otherwise not.
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @NathanGrubaugh
I think that by below average they just mean below the age-standardized mean (which I think is a 100, SD=15). Not sure if the "below average" is meaningful at all.
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From the paper: "A Bayley-III score within 1 s.d. above or below the norm of 100 was considered normal...A score of .... 1–2 s.d. below the norm (< 85 to 70) [was considered] moderately below average. A score... 2 s.d. below the norm [was considered] well below average (<70). "
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Als antwoord op @isabelrodbar @NathanGrubaugh
Yeah, I’m not really sure that tells us much? Again, the most critical question here is, what would the distribution look like in a matched control group?
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @isabelrodbar
Don’t let nitpicking over an imperfect study cloud the fact that 31% of the surviving infants and toddlers had neurodevelopment and neurosensory issues. That number is high no matter how you look at it. This is an important study to draw attention to a devastating problem.
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Als antwoord op @NathanGrubaugh @isabelrodbar
No control group = nitpicking? Not exactly. The main problem is that we don't know what expected values for these scores are, so it's impossible to assess what can be concluded from the study - incl. the 31% "below-average neuro-development and/or abnormal eye or hearing assess."
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I don't doubt that this study could be true (and likely may), however, we run a high risk of confirmation bias, which might severely skew the results. Some of the earlier studies reporting very high rates of complications have not been replicated by later studies.
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @isabelrodbar
Yes, of course you are correct about not knowing what the exact outcomes are here, but the rates are less important than the overall findings of long term problems associated with Zika. It could be 10% and still be alarming.
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Als antwoord op @NathanGrubaugh @K_G_Andersen
I think longer follow-up of these kids will be crucial to understand the implications of this finding. A measurement at a single time point is hard to interpret (particularly without an internal control group) and trajectories will be more meaningful.
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