Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
-
-
Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @nature
I'm going to push back a little on the themes I'm seeing emerging on twitter about this paper. There were predictions that Guinea was a high-risk area for Ebola emergence before the epidemic. Acting on that information in advance might have made the eventual response faster.
2 antwoorden 1 retweet 3 vind-ik-leuks -
Do you have any references on mentioned predictions about Ebola in Guinea?
2 antwoorden 0 retweets 0 vind-ik-leuks -
Als antwoord op @C_Althaus @joel_c_miller en
A hint of it in Fig 1a here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323391/#!po=6.56566 …
1 antwoord 0 retweets 1 vind-ik-leuk -
Als antwoord op @quarkyle @C_Althaus en
And Figure 1b here is less specific for Ebola but also enlightening for filovirii:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322747/#!po=29.6053 …
1 antwoord 0 retweets 2 vind-ik-leuks -
Als antwoord op @quarkyle @joel_c_miller en
Thanks for these links. The hotspot in Côte d'Ivoire is probably based on the 1994 outbreak in chimpanzees. What’s more surprising is that the EID study identifies Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as a hotspot for hemorrhagic fever but not for Ebola.
2 antwoorden 0 retweets 0 vind-ik-leuks -
Als antwoord op @C_Althaus @joel_c_miller en
Agreed. And perhaps the preparation and infrastructure necessary to manage Ebola outbreaks is the same as for hemorrhagic fever.
1 antwoord 0 retweets 0 vind-ik-leuks -
Als antwoord op @quarkyle @joel_c_miller en
True. But one of the problems during the outbreak in West Africa was that early cases were misdiagnosed as Lassa fever.
2 antwoorden 0 retweets 0 vind-ik-leuks
Yup - which is exactly one of our main arguments for why we need to focus on surveillance and catching these (known) viruses earlier. And have the infrastructure in place to do so.
-
-
Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @C_Althaus en
I think we're in good agreement here. My concern was that some tweets (not yours) appeared to be taking the argument beyond what the paper would support. Surveillance and modeling of known spillover threats in animals has large public health value.
0 antwoorden 0 retweets 3 vind-ik-leuksBedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
-
Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
Twitter is mogelijk overbelast of ondervindt een tijdelijke onderbreking. Probeer het opnieuw of bekijk de Twitter-status voor meer informatie.