Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @nature
I'm going to push back a little on the themes I'm seeing emerging on twitter about this paper. There were predictions that Guinea was a high-risk area for Ebola emergence before the epidemic. Acting on that information in advance might have made the eventual response faster.
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Do you have any references on mentioned predictions about Ebola in Guinea?
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Als antwoord op @C_Althaus @joel_c_miller en
A hint of it in Fig 1a here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323391/#!po=6.56566 …
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Als antwoord op @quarkyle @C_Althaus en
And Figure 1b here is less specific for Ebola but also enlightening for filovirii:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322747/#!po=29.6053 …
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Als antwoord op @quarkyle @joel_c_miller en
Thanks for these links. The hotspot in Côte d'Ivoire is probably based on the 1994 outbreak in chimpanzees. What’s more surprising is that the EID study identifies Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as a hotspot for hemorrhagic fever but not for Ebola.
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Als antwoord op @C_Althaus @quarkyle en
The Mano River Union countries light up for Ebola in Pigott's papers. Since that paper was published in Sep, 2014, I asked him how well they could forecast before the 2014 outbreak - he showed me their earlier figures, and Guinea convincingly still lit up.pic.twitter.com/Suud9PfLTr
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Als antwoord op @K_G_Andersen @quarkyle en
Very convincing, indeed. Shame the study was not published a few years earlier.
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Totally - exactly my comments when I was emailing with David.
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