Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
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Thanks for these links. The hotspot in Côte d'Ivoire is probably based on the 1994 outbreak in chimpanzees. What’s more surprising is that the EID study identifies Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as a hotspot for hemorrhagic fever but not for Ebola.
The Mano River Union countries light up for Ebola in Pigott's papers. Since that paper was published in Sep, 2014, I asked him how well they could forecast before the 2014 outbreak - he showed me their earlier figures, and Guinea convincingly still lit up.pic.twitter.com/Suud9PfLTr
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Very convincing, indeed. Shame the study was not published a few years earlier.
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Totally - exactly my comments when I was emailing with David.
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