Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
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Do you have any references on mentioned predictions about Ebola in Guinea?
Completely agree - and there are some excellent Ebola ‘prediction’ papers out there (e.g. Pigott 2014/16). BUT, the critical point there, is that we’re talking about a *known* outbreak virus - not a novel one. We’re not arguing against the utility of such studies...
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... in fact, such studies can be highly informative. But the difference is that you’re modeling potential trajectories of a know outbreak virus - which makes sense - versus predicting whether a novel virus found in wildlife can cause an outbreak (you can’t).
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Some of the modeling papers on Ebola that I think are fantastic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25201877?dopt=Citation …https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27414263?dopt=Citation …
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