I'm going to push back a little on the themes I'm seeing emerging on twitter about this paper. There were predictions that Guinea was a high-risk area for Ebola emergence before the epidemic. Acting on that information in advance might have made the eventual response faster.
Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
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Do you have any references on mentioned predictions about Ebola in Guinea?
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Great comment. I agree, we need surveillance ... and also response. Once detected, we need trained people to quickly mobilise and deploy the full armoury of known and proven response measures. Some will be outbreak specialists, many will be specialists on endemic infections too.
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Completely agree. In fact, there're are a lot of REALLY useful things we should spend money on to mitigate outbreaks. But biodiversity-based prediction isn't one of them. (and we're not discounting modeling approaches in general - models can be VERY useful!).
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Largely agree with this piece, but still believe at least targeted animal surveillance is vital for predictive prevention efforts in areas known or even suggested to be endemic for known pathogens...perhaps even in support of “hits” seen in human populations of suspect agents...
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Key here - “known” pathogens. Yup, I agree - e.g. mozzie surveillance for flavis. We don’t argue against that.
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An opinion piece along the same lines as yours stressing the importance of shoe-leather epidemiology: https://lsspjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40504-017-0063-9 …
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But surveillance means dirty, slogging work. And patience. And expertise. And experience. Sheesh!
Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
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I think surveillance should become a common and regular thing in many countries. It's one of the most effective approach for fighting pandemics.
Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
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