“If emissions stopped tomorrow then heating wd stop” 🤔
I hv doubts abt this statement ☝️ from climate scientists on TV:
The ice will keep melting, reducing albedo effect.
Global dimming?
Methane is being released fm melting permafrost.
Don’t we hv 2 get back to 350ppm? 🤔
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a) the paleo record disagrees with computer model simulations, to indicate committed warming
b) 9 of 15 tipping points may have begun & these aren't incorporated properly in those models
c) we will not suddenly go #netzero tomorrow, so this distracting topic reflects privilege
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The distraction of c) comes from people erroneously disputing that warming essentially ends when emissions stop (whenever that is!). So climate scientists respond with a correction and around we go again...
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There isn't some sort of conspiracy. The world's leading climate scientists have concluded that warming stops when emissions stop. We shouldn't be arguing about this.
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Roughly yeah, when ghg emissions alone stop, but when aerosols also stop the temp goes up for a while. Have you not looked at any of the graphs of the scientists saying this? It's all in the temporal framing with climate. Plus... feedbacks are wildcards.
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Great point. Ending the masking effect due to decarbonisation of net zero is another inconvenient truth of committed warming that is downplayed by some scientists seeking to avoid what they think is defeatism.
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Of all the potential reasons to collapse into defeatism, the consequences of emissions ending tomorrow is not going to be one of them!
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There is much to work towards & believing we won't prevent catastrophic damage doesn't end that drive. There's lots of research on the power of climate realism to inspire action, studiously ignored by some climatologists EG1 mdpi.com/2409-9287/6/3/
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It remains a pity that some climatologists aren't reading more into psychology and social movements studies before either self-editing and admonishing others regarding 'defeatism' or 'doomism' EG2.
link.springer.com/article/10.105
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I'm not a climatologist, I'm a climate scientist (physics background rather than geography) but I do read the social science & psychology! That's why I did this TED talk: ted.com/talks/katharin and wrote this thread:
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Scaring, guilting and/or shaming individuals is commonly perceived to be the most effective way to motivate them to engage in climate action here on Twitter. But as I explain here, such approaches backfire more often than they succeed. simonandschuster.com/books/Saving-U
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