Justin WolfersVerified account

@JustinWolfers

Professor & | contributor | Senior Fellow & | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast

Ann Arbor, MI
nber.org/~jwolfers
Joined July 2011
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  1. Retweeted
    Mar 17

    .: dependence on foreign energy + carbon fuel will decrease dramatically over the next decade as productivity of renewable sources increases and their price decreases. Hear him, & dig into “(Economic) Life During Wartime”

    2 replies . 16 retweets 39 likes
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  2. Mar 17

    Looks like yet another covid wave is hitting the industrialized world. Read the thread, and you'll see it's Omicron, The Sequel (BA.2). And while we're yet to see high numbers in the U.S., it's here, and by now we should all know how exponential spread works. Stay tuned.

    NEW: time for a Covid situation update Cases and hospitalisations are rising again across much of the western world. What’s driving the rise, and should we be worried?
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    31 replies . 233 retweets 436 likes
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  3. Mar 16

    By jingo, December seems like a long long time ago. That's a pretty sharp shift in expectations about this year's economic growth.

    1 reply . 8 likes
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  4. Mar 16

    There's also some weird discomfort in with the unemployment forecasts: The Fed sees unemployment of 3.5% for the next few years amid declining inflation, despite adverse supply shocks. That's only possible if the NAIRU is even lower, yet it projects long-run unemployment at 4%

    2 replies . 14 likes
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  5. Mar 16

    The Fed's projections also suggest a real economy that's incredibly -- even blissfully -- boring. Growth rates in the low two-point-something's for a few years, with unemployment stable around three-and-a-half percent.

    2 replies . 10 retweets 38 likes
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  6. Mar 16

    Compare the projected path for the federal funds rate with that for inflation, and you'll see that the real interest rate is expected to remain negative for the next couple of years, and only return to the neutral rate by 2024.

    2 replies . 7 retweets 21 likes
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  7. Mar 16

    The FOMC projections are available here: Biggest revisions are all bad news: Lower growth in 2022, and higher inflation in 2022 and 2023. Inflation is still expected to be largely under control by 2024.

    2 replies . 4 retweets 18 likes
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  8. Mar 16

    Interesting to see one dissent: Bullard wanted to raise rates by half a percentage point instead of a quarter. Likely others agree on the need for such a rise, but disagreed on the appropriate timing.

    1 reply . 3 retweets 22 likes
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  9. Mar 16

    The most notable addition to the Fed statement was the addition of Ukraine as a global risk "likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity."

    1 reply . 3 retweets 13 likes
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  10. Mar 16

    And no matter how you slice it, monetary policy remains remarkably geared for growth. The nominal rate is half a percentage point, and once you subtract your preferred measure of inflation, the real rate is robustly negative. The Fed has its foot nowhere near the brake.

    2 replies . 14 retweets 28 likes
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  11. Mar 16

    It's not quite right to frame this as a contractionary shift in policy. What really matters for the economy is the real interest rate (the fed rate, less expected inflation). As inflation has risen, the Fed had to raise the nominal rate just to keep the real rate stable.

    2 replies . 9 retweets 19 likes
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  12. Mar 16

    Aaaand, there it is: The Fed raises its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, as promised. They signaled this well in advance and are following through. Statement is here: No matter what your thoughts, realize that a quarter point isn't a big deal

    5 replies . 37 retweets 97 likes
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  13. Mar 16

    Columbia told US News that it’s instructional spending was $3.1 billion which is “larger than the corresponding figures for Harvard, Yale, and Princeton combined.” Hard to believe when “full-time non-medical faculty salary outlays amounted to $289 million”

    10 replies . 11 retweets 71 likes
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  14. Mar 15

    Bastiat would be proud. (Reference: )

    2 retweets 10 likes
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  15. Mar 15

    Fun fact: Raskin was confirmed to the Fed when she was nominated in a group including (future chair) Janet Yellen, and Nobel Laureate Peter Diamond. Raskin and Yellen got through, but Republicans nixed Diamond for not having the appropriate background or experience.

    3 replies . 4 retweets 40 likes
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  16. Mar 15

    She's a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, and a former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury who has twice been (easily!) confirmed by the Senate.

    Sarah Bloom Raskin withdraws from contention for Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision. w/ :
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    8 replies . 29 retweets 75 likes
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  17. Mar 15

    Our laws have the dumbest names.

    Passed by Unanimous Consent, S.623: Sunshine Protection Act, as amended (to make Daylight Saving Time permanent) / / others
    8 replies . 2 retweets 76 likes
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  18. Mar 15

    A thread exploring the literature on ways that exposure to war affects kids. The effects are remarkable not for their sign, but their enormous magnitudes, and the many margins at which war reshapes their life trajectories.

    Children & adolescents who experienced the Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970) were shorter in adulthood, which predicts "longevity, education, earnings, & the health of the next generation." Published Open access preprint
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    1 reply . 12 retweets 30 likes
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  19. Mar 14

    The whole point of covid zero was never to remain a hermit kingdom forever; it was to buy time to vaccinate the vulnerable. Two years later, and New Zealand got the memo, but Hong Kong failed, to devastating and deadly effect.

    NEW: I’m not sure people appreciate quite how bad the Covid situation is in Hong Kong, nor what might be around the corner. First, an astonishing chart. After keeping Covid at bay for two years, Omicron has hit HK and New Zealand, but the outcomes could not be more different.
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    10 replies . 127 retweets 306 likes
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  20. Mar 13

    What changed Brady's mind was the opportunity to show the world he can win even during an era of inflation.

    22 replies . 39 retweets 362 likes
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