Round 12 of the #COVID19 Scenario Modeling Hub is an update our #omicron scenarios taken into account our better understanding of this variant. (1/7)
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The big question on everyone's mind is "when will the omicron wave peak". Across scenarios, the average projected peak time across models is this week or the next. Several states are projected to have later peaks, none later than mid-February. (2/7)
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At the end of projection period in early April 2022, incident hospitalizations and cases are projected to drop to low levels (such as those seen in mid-Summery 2021) assuming no new immune escape variant. (3/7)
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During the projection period (Jan 15 to Apr 2, 2022), we expect 252,000-2,360,00 cumulative hospitalizations in the US and 16,000-98,000 cumulative deaths in the low immune escape/optimistic severity scenario. There are variations in cumulative estimates between scenarios (4/7)
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Substantial sources of uncertainty remain. Protection afforded by full vaccine schedules and boosters remain debated. Challenges to surveillance make observed levels cases and hospitalizations particularly volatile during the Omicron wave. (5/7)
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This work is a collaborative effort of many teams, working tirelessly. They deserve all of the credit for making this happen (6/7)
covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/team.html
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Do you think we'll see another round addressing BA.2, or maybe this uncertainty was already baked in to the latest round 12?
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This said, I would guess we'll see 21L create a substantially longer tail of circulation of Omicron than would have existed with just 21K, but that it won't drive the scale of epidemics we've experienced with Omicron in January. 15/15
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Currently we don't think there is enough to warrant another round on BA.2, and plan to focus a little bit longer term. But this may change as things develop
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