Although the quotes attributed to Charles Grant are incorrect, what he *did* actually say is damning enough against the Treasury civil servants who clearly think they know better than the British people who pay their salaries.https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/959130208476565505 …
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Which assumptions are wrong and how would you know? You haven't seen ANY of them. You're making this up. So very brexit of you.
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I’m a British person. I know I don’t know more than the ‘experts’ when it comes to economic forecasts. If the spesh subject was 70s Prog Rock, I’d fancy my chances.
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Maybe Julia Dunning-Kruger can indulge us simpletons - could you please identify the variables that are introducing bias, and justify how sensitive the models are to these variables? Since you seem to be very knowledgeable about the models being used and their statistical limits,
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Please use smaller words. Even though I am a British person, my knowledge is largely limited to Photoshop and Prog Rock. I am not an expert in economics - and despite the popular wisdom - I know I am not alone in my ignorance.
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And how about your post-Brexit predictions, Julia? Are you confident that on 30th March 2019, the British economy will be in just as good shape as it was on 29th March ? Free trade deals in place to succeed our present ones, businesses confident going forward, no hiatus to trade?
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This is far more sinister....released report showing how plans to remove sovereignty over 30yrs was planned in secret. http://www.wrhip.co.uk/fco1048download.html …
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Nothing says carefully considered world view better than RANDOM capitalisation. So is the corollary of your "thinking" that ideally government planning should proceed on the basis of no-forecasting?
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im very glad you're not in charge of anything important
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No economic forecast is highly accurate, so in that sense predictions are always wrong. I think all the forecasts point the same way. People who want us to exit the EU are possessed of a blind faith. It is not going to end well.
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All predictions are based on assumptions. That’s the nature of predicting things that haven’t happened, or ‘the future’, as some people call it. I’m glad people like you don’t test medicines or work out if bridges will stay up.
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OK so, provide me with the opposing "After Brexit" forecasts & predictions that are backed up by facts (not an examination of ravens entrails), and are produced by an independent & internationally respected group or think-tank (not a self-funded club) ?
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Julia. You speak with such authority, such certainty, as is you way. But I wonder how you know what the parameters of forecasts, the caveats and the features of the scenarios modelled were? Have you been given a full copy of something the rest of us have been denied?
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Of course they're laughable, because they don't tell you what you want to hear.
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Brexiteers constantly claim the EU is going to collapse financially. So perhaps you're right about financial predictions being wrong but that was also one of the erroneous reasons to leave the EU.
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We'll, what ARE the
#brexiteer economic predictions unbiased by Remainers? Why are you so coy about any sort of forecast? Business plans may always be wrong but you don't get far if you don't have a plan. Plans are for changing.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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.Less workers! The
#UK has people unemployed, they will have to get in there. -
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often? Commonly? Generally? But not always.
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