Brexit Party got 29% in a 63% Leave seat: their share just under half (46%) of the Leave share, immediately after Euros. If emulate that proportion of Leave vote in Brecon heading for 24% of the vote. (If had 67% of Leavers, could get 35%).
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So Brexit Party will struggle in FPTP constituencies, for 3 big reasons. 1. Ceiling effect (referendum): potential pool is 52% (2016 Leavers are a minority of GE voters) 2. Ceiling effect (party): some Leavers - maybe a third+ - won't vote BXP 3. Organisation, incumbency,
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Brecon & Rad often won on low share of vote. * 33.7% in 3-way photo-finish, 1929 * 34-36% in 1985, 1987, 1992, 2001 Brexit Party need 4-way marginal (LD, Brexit, Cons, Plaid). Once turns into LibDems v Brexit (Cons hold some vote, & Lab/PC paper campaign) may lose 40%+ v 25%
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* referendum ceiling puts 220 seats out of reach (Remain majority) * party ceiling - < half of Leave votes - puts 200 seats that are Leave majority (softer than Peterborough) out of reach. * Among 200 most Leave seats, big org challenge: pick 10-12 targets & have ground game too
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* Brexit Party (because of the ground game challenge) much more likely to play a "spoiler" role in a GE where disgruntled with govt (help Corbyn) than to eg get 10 (maybe hinge) seats like DUP. * best way out of this trap is a big group of defectors from ERG post-October
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Bigger dilemma for the Brexit Party is how cope with an early election * If a Boris govt ran on "deal if possible, no deal if necessary" (and BXP agreed, but expect he would betray it post-election), BXP will struggle nationally & locally * may offer Cons a pact but be rebuffed?
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Its interesting that Brexit Party have a close to zero chance of winning any of the 220+ Remain majority seat (party ceiling, even if 3 way contests), but that the LibDems and Labour can be competitive in significant numbers of Leave majority seats, esp softer ones like Brecon
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In a four way national split, the Brexit Party face a distinctive handicap. They may be unable to turn even 20-25% into any significant number of GE seats at all (beyond finding 12 or so contestable targets) while other three parties could win dozens (LD) or 150-250 (Con/Lab)pic.twitter.com/5SrxJQ61Xw
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Brexit Party electoral presence is 1. potentially a v.important internal pressure group effect on Conservative MPs/members, hardening Brexit line 2. Potentially significant 'spoiler' in marginal Conservative v Lab/LD marginals; inadvertent ally helping to elect Remain MPs
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What is Brexit Party theory of change? * 'Hope Conservatives listen and act' could work (allowing Brexit Party to fade away, claiming victory) * Its difficult to identify a scenario in which a significant General Election presence for the Brexit Party could be good for Brexit!
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Replying to @JuliaHB1 @sundersays
Forget Brexit - Corbyn is the real threat to our country. A Corbyn Gov would make any form of Brexit seem like an economic miracle by comparison.
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