Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
JuliaHB1's profile
Julia Hartley-Brewer
Julia Hartley-Brewer
Julia Hartley-Brewer
Verified account
@JuliaHB1

Tweets

Julia Hartley-BrewerVerified account

@JuliaHB1

@talkRADIO Breakfast Show presenter 6.30am-10am Mon-Fri. Journalist, broadcaster, after-dinner speaker, awards host. Preferred pronoun: she/her imperial majesty

London
Joined January 2012

Tweets

  • © 2019 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      Brexit Party got 29% in a 63% Leave seat: their share just under half (46%) of the Leave share, immediately after Euros. If emulate that proportion of Leave vote in Brecon heading for 24% of the vote. (If had 67% of Leavers, could get 35%).

      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      Show this thread
    2. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      So Brexit Party will struggle in FPTP constituencies, for 3 big reasons. 1. Ceiling effect (referendum): potential pool is 52% (2016 Leavers are a minority of GE voters) 2. Ceiling effect (party): some Leavers - maybe a third+ - won't vote BXP 3. Organisation, incumbency,

      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      Brecon & Rad often won on low share of vote. * 33.7% in 3-way photo-finish, 1929 * 34-36% in 1985, 1987, 1992, 2001 Brexit Party need 4-way marginal (LD, Brexit, Cons, Plaid). Once turns into LibDems v Brexit (Cons hold some vote, & Lab/PC paper campaign) may lose 40%+ v 25%

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      * referendum ceiling puts 220 seats out of reach (Remain majority) * party ceiling - < half of Leave votes - puts 200 seats that are Leave majority (softer than Peterborough) out of reach. * Among 200 most Leave seats, big org challenge: pick 10-12 targets & have ground game too

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      * Brexit Party (because of the ground game challenge) much more likely to play a "spoiler" role in a GE where disgruntled with govt (help Corbyn) than to eg get 10 (maybe hinge) seats like DUP. * best way out of this trap is a big group of defectors from ERG post-October

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      Bigger dilemma for the Brexit Party is how cope with an early election * If a Boris govt ran on "deal if possible, no deal if necessary" (and BXP agreed, but expect he would betray it post-election), BXP will struggle nationally & locally * may offer Cons a pact but be rebuffed?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      Its interesting that Brexit Party have a close to zero chance of winning any of the 220+ Remain majority seat (party ceiling, even if 3 way contests), but that the LibDems and Labour can be competitive in significant numbers of Leave majority seats, esp softer ones like Brecon

      2 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      In a four way national split, the Brexit Party face a distinctive handicap. They may be unable to turn even 20-25% into any significant number of GE seats at all (beyond finding 12 or so contestable targets) while other three parties could win dozens (LD) or 150-250 (Con/Lab)pic.twitter.com/5SrxJQ61Xw

      1 reply 5 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      Brexit Party electoral presence is 1. potentially a v.important internal pressure group effect on Conservative MPs/members, hardening Brexit line 2. Potentially significant 'spoiler' in marginal Conservative v Lab/LD marginals; inadvertent ally helping to elect Remain MPs

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Sunder Katwala‏ @sundersays Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      What is Brexit Party theory of change? * 'Hope Conservatives listen and act' could work (allowing Brexit Party to fade away, claiming victory) * Its difficult to identify a scenario in which a significant General Election presence for the Brexit Party could be good for Brexit!

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Julia Hartley-Brewer‏Verified account @JuliaHB1 Jun 21
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @sundersays

      This Brexit dilemma needs a catchy name...

      11:21 PM - 21 Jun 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 1 Like
      • Cerrulla Sunder Katwala
      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        1. Jonathan Stollery‏ @mvrik599 Jun 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @JuliaHB1 @sundersays

          Forget Brexit - Corbyn is the real threat to our country. A Corbyn Gov would make any form of Brexit seem like an economic miracle by comparison.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Cerrulla‏ @derekchapman1 Jun 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @JuliaHB1 @sundersays

          Chaos would be a good start.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2019 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info