Really compared to other states, presidential polling in VA was fine, but the senate polling was way way way off and I don’t know why exactly that’s the case(I’m gonna guess they missed Warner bottom dropping support out west finally, but I can’t say that for sure.)
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I don't think its a good practice to compare polling accuracy in off years to presidential years.
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I think it’s worse to extrapolate off of 4 years ago instead of things we have only 1 year ago, but agree to disagree
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how do polling errors get to be "out of date".... because one error was in one direction and another was in a different direction? That argument does not make sense IMHO. . .error is error
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I feel like "counterbalanced" is a better term than "out of date" here
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Obviously the polls being off a few points should weigh more heavily than Biden winning by 10 and Warner winning by 12 when categorizing the 2021 prospects in the formerly red then purple but now blue state.
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I see almost all polls had Warner at 55 5/8. With 2 having him at 57 and 1 at 52. But they all had gade at 37-39. With 1 at 34. Interesting.
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Recency matters, but so does equivalent cycle. But also other variables, like 2017 being the first cycle with the opposing party in power, etc.
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