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JordanTSack's profile
Jordan Sack
Jordan Sack
Jordan Sack
@JordanTSack

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Jordan Sack

@JordanTSack

Fmr Threat Analyst, Social Network Analysis, Trader, Technology, Philosophy, Bitcoin, Economics

Theatre of Envy
medium.com/jordan-t-sack
Joined May 2018

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    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb Aug 19

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted Steven Pinker

      1) There is something green about "quant" @Michael_Spagat and this paper (cont)https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1029092945088131072 …

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb added,

      Steven PinkerVerified account @sapinker
      Is the Long Peace since mid-20th century (no great-power wars, fall in deaths from >20/100k to <2/100k) statistically significant? Some tests fail to reject null hypothesis, but quant Michael Spagat shows 1950 really is a break point. https://mikespagat.wordpress.com/2018/08/10/a-new-entry-into-the-decline-of-war-debate-yes-there-has-been-a-decline/ … via @wordpressdotcom
      3 replies 10 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jordan Sack‏ @JordanTSack Aug 19
      Replying to @nntaleb @Michael_Spagat

      Limiting to “battle deaths” seems rather arbitrary as the nature of warfare has entirely changed due to technology in the last century.

      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
    3. Michael Spagat‏ @Michael_Spagat Aug 20
      Replying to @JordanTSack @nntaleb

      Hi. Of course, it would be great to do similar analyses on other concepts of war deaths. However, the only data sets I'm aware that are really useable to analyze war sizes over the last two centuries are battle deaths datasets.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Michael Spagat‏ @Michael_Spagat Aug 20
      Replying to @Michael_Spagat @JordanTSack @nntaleb

      The reason for this is that battle deaths are basically the lowest common denominator of information about war deaths that can be extracted with some degree of consistency, hence comparability, over all wars going way back in time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Michael Spagat‏ @Michael_Spagat Aug 20
      Replying to @Michael_Spagat @JordanTSack @nntaleb

      However, check out the huge pdf of documentation of their coding decisions. Peruse it for just 15 minutes and it should become clear just how how fragmentary the record is and how much judgment must be brought to bear to code the data.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Michael Spagat‏ @Michael_Spagat Aug 20
      Replying to @Michael_Spagat @JordanTSack @nntaleb

      Unfortunately, there is not a long history of tracking tracking war death numbers closely over two centuries. It's not at all simple to pull out two centuries worth of data on any concept of war deaths that you like.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Michael Spagat‏ @Michael_Spagat Aug 20
      Replying to @Michael_Spagat @JordanTSack @nntaleb

      But for the foreseeable future, and maybe always, it will be hard to do anything other than to be aware of weaknesses in the data and to make caveats about what can be concluded from flawed data.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Jordan Sack‏ @JordanTSack Aug 20
      Replying to @Michael_Spagat @nntaleb

      Yeah, I’m well aware of the difficulty in obtaining accurate information surrounding casualty numbers/secondary deaths. It just seems to me that Pinker makes this disingenuous argument that “everything is getting better” and cherry picks data.

      6:12 AM - 20 Aug 2018
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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