I see all these articles and posts about how better the world has gotten. if one foolishly ignores left tail risk of annihilation then it is better. But 100 years ago millions would die from diseases but human race would continue, no tail risk. Today, risk of ruin is huge. Poll:
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Replying to @mikeharrisNY @MimeticValue
Pinker makes this dumb argument all the time. The risk of total annihilation is exponentially increasing in time as tech and energy harnessing increases. These people are looking at 5min candles on a 30year chart, who think that everything is “better”.
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Couldn’t you have made this same critique of optimism 100 years ago, and 100 years before that? To be fair, tail risk will never go back to pre-atomic levels, so why factor that in your analysis? (Genuinely curious..)
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It isn’t that optimism is a problem. Its just incorrect to sell a narrative of eternal “improvement”/optimism. “Improvement” is relative. Ex: there were few diseases prior to domestication of animals. Yet pinker tells us we’re improving because there’s less now than 100yrs ago?
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