My first home loan in 1998 was 7.375%. Where would real estate prices be if we had those rates again. Mortgages are up 100 basis points from last year and continue to rise. The Fed better be very careful. #TradeWar and higher rates equals recession.
Especially as consumption and mortgages are made up of an ever narrowing % of the population. Any innovation in tech that renders a meaningful % of programmers unnecessary, could cause the next crisis.